Estimate the size of the US market for wedding dresses.

I'll take the number of weddings in a year, the share where a new dress is bought, and the average price. There are about 2 million weddings a year in the US. I get that from 330 million people and a lifespan of about 80 years, so about 4 million people at each age. If the average person marries about once, since some never do and some marry twice, that's 4 million people marrying each year, and two per wedding. Most of those involve a new dress, so I'll say 1.6 million dresses. That's 80%. The rest are courthouse weddings in regular clothes, or dresses that are rented, borrowed or secondhand. I'll say the average dress costs about $1,500. Some are a few hundred dollars and some are many thousands, so that feels like a fair middle. 1.6 million times $1,500 is $2.4 billion a year.

I'll take the number of weddings in a year, the share where a new dress is bought, and the average price. There are about 2 million weddings a year in the US. I get that from 330 million people and a lifespan of about 80 years, so about 4 million people at each age. If the average person marries about once, since some never do and some marry twice, that's 4 million people marrying each year, and two per wedding. Most of those involve a new dress, so I'll say 1.6 million dresses. That's 80%. The rest are courthouse weddings in regular clothes, or dresses that are rented, borrowed or secondhand. I'll say the average dress costs about $1,500. I'd split that into three tiers. A quarter of brides buy online or off the rack at around $300, 60% go to a bridal shop and spend about $1,500, and 15% spend around $4,000. That's $75 plus $900 plus $600, which is $1,575, so $1,500 is fair. 1.6 million times $1,500 is $2.4 billion a year. As a check, if a typical wedding costs somewhere around $30,000, a $1,500 dress is 5% of the budget, which sounds right. I've left out alterations, veils and bridesmaid dresses. They'd add to this if we define the market more widely.