How many smartphones are sold in the United States each year?

My method is phones in use divided by how many years a phone is kept. Start with who has one. The US has about 330 million people. With a lifespan of about 80 years that's roughly 4 million at each age, so about 40 million children under 10. I'll assume 1 in 10 of them has a phone, which is 4 million. That leaves 290 million people aged 10 and up, and I'll say 90% have a smartphone. That's 261 million, so 260 million. Some people also carry a second phone from their employer. I'll add 16 million for those, which makes 280 million phones in use. People keep a phone about two and a half years. Carrier deals push an upgrade after two or three, and a lost or broken phone gets replaced sooner, but plenty of people hold on for five. So 280 million divided by 2.5 is 112 million phones a year. So my answer is about 110 million, which feels about right to me.

I'll count new phones sold in a year and leave out secondhand ones. My method is phones in use divided by how many years a phone is kept. Start with who has one. The US has about 330 million people. With a lifespan of about 80 years that's roughly 4 million at each age, so about 40 million children under 10. I'll assume 1 in 10 of them has a phone, which is 4 million. That leaves 290 million people aged 10 and up, and I'll say 90% have a smartphone. Nearly every working adult does, and the gaps are the youngest and the very oldest. That's 261 million, so 260 million. Some people also carry a second phone from their employer. I'll add 16 million for those, 1 in 10 of about 160 million workers, which makes 280 million phones in use. People keep a phone about two and a half years. Carrier deals push an upgrade after two or three, and a lost or broken phone gets replaced sooner, but plenty of people hold on for five. So 280 million divided by 2.5 is 112 million phones a year. Now a test from outside that chain, in dollars. At an average of $700, about 110 million phones is $77 billion, about $590 a household a year. That's around $49 a month, less than a home of two or three people pays for its phone service, which sounds right for the handsets alone. It's a loose test. Handsets would only pass the service bill at about twice my count, so it catches a miss of about two times, nothing smaller. The soft spot is the cycle. At three years it's about 93 million, and at two it's 140 million. Hand-me-downs and refurbished phones pull new sales down, and trade-in deals that shorten the cycle push them up. So I'd say 90 to 140 million, with 110 as my answer.