A European e-bike maker is thinking about entering the US market. How would you structure the decision?

Two quick questions first. What does success look like, is there a sales target and a timeframe? And which bikes are we talking about, commuter, cargo or mountain? I'd look at three things. The first is whether the US market is attractive. That means how big it is, how fast it's growing and how much profit there is in it. I'd also want to know who buys e-bikes there and why. The second is whether this company can win there. I'd look at the competition and at the customers. The third is how to enter and whether the numbers work. They could export, find a partner or build something locally. I'd build a business case for each option and rank them by payback and risk. I'd start with the market size, since the rest depends on it. Do we have data on that?

Two quick questions first. What does success look like, is there a sales target and a timeframe? And which bikes are we talking about, commuter, cargo or mountain? I'll assume they sell premium commuter e-bikes at around $3,000 and want about $100 million in US sales within five years. I'd look at three things. The first is whether the US market is attractive. That means how big it is, how fast it's growing and how much profit there is in it. I'd also want to know who buys e-bikes there and why. I'd size it by city and by type of rider, because US demand sits in a handful of metro areas with bike lanes, and it leans more toward leisure than commuting compared with Europe. The second is whether this company can win there. I'd compare its bikes on price and features with the US brands that sell online for much less. I'd also check what has to change in the product, since the US allows faster motors and has its own classes of e-bike. The third is how to enter and whether the numbers work. They could export, find a partner or build something locally. In practice the choice is between selling direct online, going through independent bike dealers who also do the servicing, or partnering with a big retailer. I'd build a business case for each option and rank them by payback and risk. Each case has to include tariffs, shipping and the cost of service. My starting hypothesis is that the market is attractive and the hard part is distribution, because a $3,000 bike needs someone local to fix it. So I'd start with how US buyers at this price buy today. Do we have sales by channel?