An airline's profits are falling even though it is carrying more passengers. What is going on?
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Example answer
50/100
This sounds like a profitability case, so I'd go through revenue and then costs. More passengers and less profit means one of two things. Either they earn less on each passenger, or it costs more to carry them.
On the revenue side, I'd look at ticket prices and how full the planes are.
On the cost side, I'd look at fuel, labor and aircraft.
Once I find which one it is, I'd recommend how to fix it.
What holds it back
"Go through revenue and then costs" ignores the clue in the question, that passengers are up. It lists ticket prices and fuel with no idea which one to check first.
Let me check two things. What period are we looking at, and is revenue up along with passengers? More passengers and less profit means one of two things. Either they earn less on each passenger, or it costs more to carry them. I'd measure both per seat mile, which is how airlines compare routes of different lengths. On the revenue side, I'd look at ticket prices and how full the planes are. I'd also look at who is flying. On the cost side, I'd look at fuel, labor and aircraft. Fuel and new pilot contracts hit every airline. Then I'd separate what's happening to the whole industry from what's specific to this airline. Comparing it with two or three competitors would show that quickly. I'd start with revenue, since passengers are up and profit isn't. Do we have fares over time, ideally by route?
Let me check two things. What period are we looking at, and is revenue up along with passengers? I'll assume it's the last two years, with passengers up 10% and revenue up less than that. More passengers and less profit means one of two things. Either they earn less on each passenger, or it costs more to carry them. I'd measure both per seat mile, which is how airlines compare routes of different lengths. On the revenue side, I'd look at ticket prices and how full the planes are. I'd also look at who is flying. The question I'd ask is how the extra passengers were won. If the airline added flights and cut fares to fill them, revenue per seat falls while the planes look full. The same happens if leisure travelers replace business travelers who pay three or four times as much. On the cost side, I'd look at fuel, labor and aircraft. Fuel and new pilot contracts hit every airline. What's specific to this one is whether new routes fly with too many seats, whether short hops cost more per mile, and whether delays add crew and compensation costs. Then I'd separate what's happening to the whole industry from what's specific to this airline. Comparing it with two or three competitors would show that quickly. I'd use revenue and cost per seat mile for that. My hypothesis is that it's a revenue quality problem, meaning they bought growth with low fares on new routes. So I'd start with profit by route, old routes against new ones. Do we have that?
What the interviewer listens for
- Do you use the clue that passengers are up while profit is down?
- Do you think per passenger or per seat, and not in totals?
- Do you separate industry-wide pressures from this airline's own choices?
- Do you offer a hypothesis for how growth could destroy profit?
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