How many diapers are used in the United States each year?
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Example answer
50/100
I know babies go through a lot of diapers, so it must be in the billions. Maybe 10 billion?
There are about 4 million babies born in the US each year. Kids wear diapers until they're about two and a half, so that's 10 million children in diapers.
I'll say each one uses about 6 diapers a day, which is 60 million a day. Times 365, that's about 22 billion diapers a year.
What holds it back
"Maybe 10 billion?" is a guess, and it's less than half of what the math gives. The 4 million births and 6 diapers a day aren't explained, so the answer can't be checked.
I'll estimate how many children are in diapers and multiply by how many they use a day. There are about 4 million babies born in the US each year. That's 330 million people divided by a lifespan of about 80, which gives the number of people at each age. Kids wear diapers until they're about two and a half, so that's 10 million children in diapers. Some are done at two and some at three, so two and a half is a middle. I'll say each one uses about 6 diapers a day, which is 60 million a day. A newborn goes through 10 or more and a two-year-old maybe 4, so 6 is an average across the whole period. Times 365, that's about 22 billion diapers a year. That number seems reasonable to me.
I'll estimate how many children are in diapers and multiply by how many they use a day. I'll do babies first and come back to adults at the end. There are about 4 million babies born in the US each year. That's 330 million people divided by a lifespan of about 80, which gives the number of people at each age. Kids wear diapers until they're about two and a half, so that's 10 million children in diapers. Some are done at two and some at three, so two and a half is a middle. I'll say each one uses about 6 diapers a day, which is 60 million a day. A newborn goes through 10 or more and a two-year-old maybe 4, so 6 is an average across the whole period. Times 365, that's about 22 billion diapers a year. For adults, I'll assume about 5 million people use them, mostly elderly, at around 3 a day. That's 15 million a day, or about 5.5 billion a year. So the total is roughly 27 billion, with babies about 80% of it. As a check on the baby number, 6 a day is about 2,200 diapers a year per child. At around 25 cents each that's $550 a year, which sounds like what a family would spend.
What the interviewer listens for
- Do you derive births per year from population?
- Do you explain the diapers-per-day average across ages?
- Do you think of users beyond babies?
- Do you check the result against something tangible, like cost per child?
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