Tell me about a time you had to make a decision without all the information you wanted.

I was a reserve logistics officer, and my unit was called up after a river flooded three towns in our state. On the second day I had to get 40 pallets of drinking water to a shelter holding about 900 people. There were two routes. The short one took 90 minutes, but we had an unconfirmed report that a bridge on it was washed out. The long one took four hours. The shelter had told us they'd run out of water by that evening, and it was already noon. I tried to confirm the bridge and couldn't. The county road office wasn't answering, and waiting for a helicopter to fly over meant losing at least two hours. So I asked myself what each mistake would cost. Being wrong about the short route was far worse. So I sent the trucks the long way. I also sent someone to check the short route. The water got there that afternoon, before the shelter ran out. It taught me to weigh the downside of each option.

I was a reserve logistics officer, and my unit was called up after a river flooded three towns in our state. On the second day I had to get 40 pallets of drinking water to a shelter holding about 900 people. There were two routes. The short one took 90 minutes, but we had an unconfirmed report that a bridge on it was washed out. The long one took four hours. The shelter had told us they'd run out of water by that evening, and it was already noon. I tried to confirm the bridge and couldn't. The county road office wasn't answering, and waiting for a helicopter to fly over meant losing at least two hours. So I asked myself what each mistake would cost. If I took the long route and the bridge was fine, water arrived at four instead of two. If I took the short route and the bridge was out, we'd turn around and arrive after eight, in the dark, with the shelter already dry. So I sent the trucks the long way. I also sent one light vehicle with a radio down the short route, because if the bridge was standing, the second load could use it and save us hours the next day. And I called the shelter manager to tell her four o'clock, so she could ration. The water got there that afternoon, before the shelter ran out. The scout vehicle reported the bridge was gone, so the short route would have failed. I got lucky on that part, and I try to remember that a good outcome doesn't prove a good decision. What I took from it is a habit. When I can't get the information, I compare the cost of each way of being wrong, and I look for something cheap I can learn while I'm already moving.