Which valuation method usually gives the highest value, and why?
Precedent transactions usually give the highest value because buyers pay a control premium. Then comes the DCF, which swings with assumptions, then trading comps, which reflect minority prices. An LBO is often lowest because target returns cap the price. Hot markets can change the order.
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Example answer
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Precedent transactions usually give the highest value. Those are prices buyers paid for whole companies, so they include a control premium. Trading comps come out lower. The DCF is somewhere in the middle most of the time. An LBO analysis usually gives the lowest value, so people treat it as a floor. So I'd say precedent transactions, then usually DCF, then trading comps, then LBO.
What holds it back
It's the ranking learned by heart. Only one of the four places has a reason, and it puts the DCF in the middle when a DCF moves with its assumptions.
There's no method that always comes out highest, but there is a usual order. Precedent transactions usually give the highest value. Those are prices buyers paid for whole companies, so they include a control premium. Trading comps come out lower because a share price is what a minority investor pays for a small stake with no control. The DCF is the one that can land anywhere. It depends on my own assumptions, mainly the growth rate, the margins, the discount rate and the terminal value. With optimistic projections it can be the highest of all, and with cautious ones it can be the lowest. An LBO analysis usually gives the lowest value, so people treat it as a floor. A private equity buyer needs to earn its target return, and that caps what it can pay. So I'd say precedent transactions, then usually DCF, then trading comps, then LBO.
There's no method that always comes out highest, but there is a usual order. Precedent transactions usually give the highest value. Those are prices buyers paid for whole companies, so they include a control premium, and often part of the synergies the buyer expected. Trading comps come out lower because a share price is what a minority investor pays for a small stake with no control. The DCF is the one that can land anywhere. It depends on my own assumptions, mainly the growth rate, the margins, the discount rate and the terminal value. With optimistic projections it can be the highest of all, and with cautious ones it can be the lowest. If the projections come from management, I'd expect them to lean optimistic, which pushes the DCF up. An LBO analysis usually gives the lowest value, so people treat it as a floor. A private equity buyer needs to earn its target return, and that caps what it can pay. It also has no synergies to pay for, and it's limited by how much debt the company can carry. The order can flip. In a hot market, trading comps can sit above precedent deals that were struck in a weaker market a few years earlier. And for a fast-growing company, a DCF can beat everything, because the multiples are applied to today's small earnings. So I'd say precedent transactions, then usually DCF, then trading comps, then LBO. I'd treat that as a rule of thumb. If the methods came out in a different order, I'd want to explain each gap before trusting any of them.
What the interviewer listens for
- Do you say it depends before you give an order?
- Can you explain the control premium?
- Do you know why a DCF can be the highest or the lowest?
- Do you know why an LBO analysis tends to set a floor?
- Can you name a case where the usual order breaks?
Common mistakes
- Saying the DCF is always the highest.It's only as high as the growth, margin and discount rate assumptions that go into it.
- Giving the ranking with no reasons.The interviewer is asking for the why, and the next question will be about the control premium.
- Saying an LBO gives a low value because private equity firms are cheap.The real reason is that the price has to leave room for the return they need.
- Presenting the order as a rule with no exceptions, when market conditions at the time of past deals can put trading comps above them.
More finance technicals
- When would you use EV/EBITDA instead of P/E?
- How do you calculate diluted shares with the treasury stock method?
- How would you value a company that is losing money?
- Why is debt cheaper than equity?
- Walk me through a DCF.
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