How would you value a company that is losing money?
First ask why it loses money, early growth or a broken model. P/E and EV/EBITDA stop working, so use EV to revenue against peers with similar growth and gross margin. Build a DCF out to mature margins, and test unit economics to check them.
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Example answer
50/100
I'd start by asking why it's losing money. P/E doesn't work, because negative earnings give a negative multiple that means nothing. EV to EBITDA fails the same way if EBITDA is negative too. So for a growing company I'd move up the income statement to something positive. That's usually EV to revenue. I'd also do a DCF, since the cash flows should turn positive at some point. It's hard to be precise with these companies.
What holds it back
It knows which multiples break and reaches for revenue, but the DCF is justified with a hope, the reason for the losses is never used, and it ends by giving up on precision.
I'd start by asking why it's losing money, because that decides the method. The first thing to say is which tools break. P/E doesn't work, because negative earnings give a negative multiple that means nothing. EV to EBITDA fails the same way if EBITDA is negative too. So for a growing company I'd move up the income statement to something positive. That's usually EV to revenue, using peers with similar growth. Second, I'd still do a DCF, but with a longer forecast. I'd project out until the company reaches steady margins, so the losses in the early years and the profits later are both in the numbers. Third, I'd check the unit economics, because they tell me whether the losses are an investment or a broken model. If it's a mature company in a temporary dip, I'd use multiples on normalized or forward earnings instead.
I'd start by asking why it's losing money, because that decides the method. A young company spending to grow is a different problem from a mature company in a bad year. The first thing to say is which tools break. P/E doesn't work, because negative earnings give a negative multiple that means nothing. EV to EBITDA fails the same way if EBITDA is negative too. So for a growing company I'd move up the income statement to something positive. That's usually EV to revenue, using peers with similar growth and similar gross margins, because revenue that keeps more gross profit is worth a higher multiple. Second, I'd still do a DCF, but with a longer forecast. I'd project out until the company reaches steady margins, so the losses in the early years and the profits later are both in the numbers. Most of the value will sit in the terminal value, so I'd show scenarios, not one number. Third, I'd check the unit economics, because they tell me whether the losses are an investment or a broken model. Say a customer costs $100 to win and brings in $300 of gross profit over their lifetime. That's $200 left per customer, or three times the cost, so the losses come from growing fast and should shrink as growth slows. If a customer brought in less than $100, more growth would mean bigger losses. I'd also check how long the cash lasts, since none of this matters if the company runs out first. If it's a mature company in a temporary dip, I'd use multiples on normalized or forward earnings instead. If it's in real distress, I'd look at what the assets would sell for. In every case I'd give a wide range and say what would move it.
The numbers, step by step
An invented customer who costs $100 to win and brings in $300 of gross profit over their lifetime.
- Left per customer$300 − $100
- $200
- Lifetime gross profit over cost$300 ÷ $100
- 3 times
What the interviewer listens for
- Do you ask why the company is losing money before you pick a method?
- Do you know why P/E and EV to EBITDA stop working?
- Do you know what a DCF needs when the early cash flows are negative?
- Can you tell growth losses apart from a business model that doesn't work?
Common mistakes
- Saying a company with no profit can't be valued.Revenue multiples and a longer DCF both still work.
- Applying a revenue multiple from peers with much higher growth or gross margins, which overstates the value.
- Stopping a DCF forecast before the company reaches steady margins, so the terminal value is built on a year that isn't normal.
- Treating every loss-making company as a startup.A mature business in a bad year is valued on normalized earnings.
More finance technicals
- Why is debt cheaper than equity?
- Walk me through a DCF.
- What is WACC and how do you calculate it?
- What is the difference between enterprise value and equity value?
- How would you value a company?
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