How would you value a company that is losing money?

First ask why it loses money, early growth or a broken model. P/E and EV/EBITDA stop working, so use EV to revenue against peers with similar growth and gross margin. Build a DCF out to mature margins, and test unit economics to check them.

See this answer go from 50 to 90

Example answer

50/100

I'd start by asking why it's losing money. P/E doesn't work, because negative earnings give a negative multiple that means nothing. EV to EBITDA fails the same way if EBITDA is negative too. So for a growing company I'd move up the income statement to something positive. That's usually EV to revenue. I'd also do a DCF, since the cash flows should turn positive at some point. It's hard to be precise with these companies.

What holds it back

It knows which multiples break and reaches for revenue, but the DCF is justified with a hope, the reason for the losses is never used, and it ends by giving up on precision.

The numbers, step by step

An invented customer who costs $100 to win and brings in $300 of gross profit over their lifetime.

Left per customer$300 − $100
$200
Lifetime gross profit over cost$300 ÷ $100
3 times

What the interviewer listens for

  • Do you ask why the company is losing money before you pick a method?
  • Do you know why P/E and EV to EBITDA stop working?
  • Do you know what a DCF needs when the early cash flows are negative?
  • Can you tell growth losses apart from a business model that doesn't work?

Common mistakes

  • Saying a company with no profit can't be valued.Revenue multiples and a longer DCF both still work.
  • Applying a revenue multiple from peers with much higher growth or gross margins, which overstates the value.
  • Stopping a DCF forecast before the company reaches steady margins, so the terminal value is built on a year that isn't normal.
  • Treating every loss-making company as a startup.A mature business in a bad year is valued on normalized earnings.

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