Worked example, invented company
Brightwater Pet Supply (BWPS): Buy, $47.50 target (+32%)
- Price
- $36.00
- Target
- $47.50
- Upside
- +32%
- If wrong
- −8%
Thesis
The market prices Brightwater as a slow store chain, but its food subscription is now 30% of sales, grows 25% a year and earns twice the store margin, so earnings should beat consensus next year.
Catalysts
- Third-quarter results, when the company reports subscription sales on their own for the first time.
- The closing of 40 loss-making stores by year end, which lifts the operating margin by about a point.
Valuation
I value the subscription business at 25 times earnings and the stores at 15 times, and at 40% subscription next year that blends to 19 times.
19x × $2.50 EPS = $47.50. Today: 16.4x consensus $2.20.
Risks
- A large online retailer cuts pet food prices and subscription growth stalls.
- Store closures cost more than planned.
Wrong if monthly subscription cancellations rise above 4% for two quarters.