What signs tell you a company is heading for distress?

Group the signs into liquidity, leverage and market signals, and put cash and refinancing ahead of profit. Use numbers for leverage, coverage and covenants, check the maturity schedule, and name late signs like advisors, grace periods and forbearance.

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How a 90-point answer starts

I'd sort the signs into three groups: liquidity, leverage and what the market is saying. Companies rarely fail because profit dips.

See the full answer, the 50 and 70 versions, and what moves each score up.

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The numbers, step by step

$600 million of debt, $60 million of interest a year, EBITDA falling from $150 million to $90 million, and a 5.0 times maximum leverage covenant.

Leverage before$600 ÷ $150
4.0 times
Leverage after$600 ÷ $90
about 6.7 times
Interest coverage before$150 ÷ $60
2.5 times
Interest coverage after$90 ÷ $60
1.5 times
EBITDA at which the covenant breaks$600 ÷ 5.0
$120 million

What the interviewer listens for

  • Do you organize the signs into liquidity, leverage and market signals?
  • Do you put cash and refinancing ahead of earnings?
  • Can you put numbers on leverage, coverage or a covenant?
  • Do you mention maturities and the late signs?

Common mistakes

  • Focusing on net income or one bad quarter.Liquidity and refinancing risk decide whether a company is in distress.
  • Ignoring the debt maturity schedule, which is often the actual trigger.
  • Treating a missed interest payment as an immediate default.Most bond indentures give a grace period, often 30 days, first.
  • Listing signs with no thresholds, like leverage, coverage or covenant levels.

Likely follow-ups

  • What's a forbearance agreement?Lenders agree not to act on a default for a set time, usually for fees and tighter terms, to give the company room to negotiate a fix.
  • How do maintenance and incurrence covenants differ?Maintenance covenants are tested regularly, usually each quarter, and are typical of bank loans. Incurrence covenants are tested only when the company does something like borrow more, and are typical of high-yield bonds.

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